Statistical analysis exploring why some hitters experience performance decline during the MLB postseason.
This project isolates which offensive skills are resilient to playoff pressure and which ones depreciate in the postseason environment.
Project Highlights:
• Methodology: Models Postseason OPS as a function of four distinct regular-season components—Contact (AVG), Power (ISO), Discipline (BB%), and Whiff Rate (SO%)—using a sample of 641 MLB players.
• Key Findings: Identifies that raw power (ISO) is the most robust skill, retaining its value roughly 1-to-1, whereas plate discipline (BB%) significantly depreciates, retaining only ~56% of its regular-season weight.
• Implication: Challenges traditional baseball wisdom regarding "clutch" performance by demonstrating that elite hitters relying on walks are statistically more vulnerable to regression than those relying on extra-base hits.